What we develop

Monte Carlo Module

“Projections are difficult, especially when they relate to the future.” According to sources, Karl Valentin, Mark Twain, Winston Churchill and Kurt Tucholsky already knew this.

When it comes to investment, forecasts are particularly difficult, but also particularly important. The investor wants to know and see how his investment will probably develop over time. At the same time, it is not permissible to advertise a product, portfolio or sample allocation based solely on historical performance. In other words: we have to calculate.

Our Monte Carlo module calculates 10,000 or more random, non-parametric paths for any portfolio or security within moments. The paths are dynamically displayed in the Monte Carlo Service Chart widget while the calculation is still in progress, so that the investor can “watch” the service as it calculates. Finally, the configurable quantiles are displayed so that it is possible to see the probability of the investment developing within a certain range.

The visualisation of the simulation clearly shows the significance of the risk of an investment – and at the same time makes the influence of the investment horizon on the expected return visible.